Improved Forecasts of Vehicle Size and Age Distribution and the Impact on Energy Consumption and Vehicle Emissions (SWUTC/93/60030-1)

This report documents the methodology for projecting future distributions of vehicles by age and type (size) for the 10 largest urbanized areas in Texas. These 10 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) consist of 31 different counties. The historical data pertaining to each county such as population, number employed and unemployed, income, and household size were analyzed. Data on the number of vehicles that were registered in each county by model year and vehicle weight were compiled. Historical data were used to establish trends which provided the basis for projecting the distributions. Data on the distribution of vehicles by age and type (size), and trends in vehicle ownership were compiled and analyzed. The mix of vehicles by age and size for the years 2000, 2010, 2020 was estimated and used to evaluate the potential impact on vehicle emissions and energy consumption.