Dynamic Traffic Flow Modeling for Incident Detection and Short-Term Congestion Prediction: Year 1 Progress Report (0-4946-1)

The purpose of this report is to summarize the research activities that were performed during the first year of this research project. In conducting this research, the research team split into several independent groups, each focusing on different aspects of the problem. One group has been focused on using weather and traffic flow conditions as predictors of incident conditions. Their activities are summarized in Chapter II. Other groups have been focused on developing models for producing short-term forecasts of potential congestion, using current measured traffic conditions. The results of these activities are summarized in Chapter III. Finally, we are beginning the process of developing a prototype tool that operators can use in a control center to display forecasted conditions. The beginnings of a high-level, functional specification for the tool are provided in Chapter IV.