Forecasting Model for U.S.-Mexico Border Freight Traffic Trends Report

The Center for International Intelligent Transportation Research (CIITR) publishes an annual issue of the report titled U.S.-Mexico Border Freight Traffic Trends. This publication is primarily focused on reporting historical freight activities at land ports of entry (LPOEs) on the U.S.-Mexico border over the past 20 years. Specifically, this publication presents historical trends and other statistics regarding freight traffic, trade, types of commodities transported, and import-export activities by mode of surface transportation. Some of the information presented is aggregated at the border municipality level -- by what is defined by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics as a “port” -- while other information is presented for select LPOEs. The U.S.-Mexico Border Freight Traffic Trends report is a valuable reference for public agencies with competences in international trade and cross-border transportation operations, among others. This publication is also used by private-sector entities that perform trade and manufacturing activities. The objective of this research project was to develop a model capable of forecasting future commodity trading between the United States and Mexico based on the historical import and export data. The incorporation of these forecasts into the U.S.-Mexico Border Freight Traffic Trends yearly report will benefit transportation and trade agencies, as well as the private sector, by providing a better understanding of future tendencies in border trade dynamics. This report consists of five chapters. The present chapter (Chapter 1) serves as the introduction. Chapter 2 documents the state of the practice on trade forecasting methods. Chapter 3 describes U.S.-Mexico trade data datasets and their sources. Chapter 4 provides a detailed description of the forecasting method utilized by means of an example, and Chapter 5 provides the forecast results. Chapter 6 then presents the conclusion of the project. Finally, forecasted values are documented in the Appendix.