America's Locks & Dams: "A Ticking Time Bomb for Agriculture?"
Author(s):
C.J. Kruse, A.A. Protopapa
Publication Date:
December 2011
Abstract:
The rapidly deteriorating condition of the nation's lock and dam infrastructure imperils the ability of the waterborne transportation system to provide a service that will enable U.S. agricultural producers to continue to compete. This research examined the condition of locks on key segments of the nation's waterways, analyzed their usage, determined which are most likely to suffer catastrophic failure, and estimated the impact at the local level based on projected freight flows. Six locks were chosen for detailed analysis. The report describes lock volumes/values and modal splits for future flows, lock operational statistics and wait times, lock condition information and potential modal diversion impacts, and the economic impact at the congressional district/regional level. By 2050, nationwide transportation of grain is projected to increase by 5.5 million and 9.6 million tons by truck and rail, respectively, whereas barge transportation is projected to decrease by nearly 15 million tons. The total share of truck changes from 22 percent in the base year to 24 percent in 2050, from 53 percent to 58 percent for rail, and from 25 percent to 18 percent for barge. These changes in modal transportation shares are primarily because of potential climate change effects and will affect various regions of the country differently over time. Federal government data in 2004 reported that over half of federal-aid highways are in less-than-good condition and more than one quarter of the nation's bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. Great deficiencies exist in funds to maintain and improve our nation's roads. A potential diversion of barge traffic to rail or long haul truck would further add to current or forecasted demand, resulting in detrimental effects on our infrastructure and increasing costs to our economy. The model shows that potential lock closures have the following possible effects: International consumers have the most to lose. Barge companies lose significant revenue. Barge use is reduced and replaced by rail and small ship. The United States loses a small amount of export share. The cost of closure is about $1.50 per ton that traverses a lock.
Report Number:
406821-4
Electronic Link(s):
Document/Product
http://tti.tamu.edu/documents/TTI-2011-9.pdf
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