TTI Study Reflects Major Driver Changes in Texas

Texans drove less for eight consecutive months of 2008 compared to the same month the year before, a TTI study has determined. However, drivers hit the road in force in December thanks to much lower gasoline prices.

“It’s the first time we’ve seen eight consecutive decreases in at least a decade,” says Associate Research Scientist Dave Ellis, who has been analyzing raw gasoline consumption data from the Texas Comptroller’s Office. He has reviewed the figures — and adjusted them for population increases and other factors — going back to 1997.

“It’s clear that gasoline price increases last year influenced driving behavior in Texas,” Ellis says. “History has taught us, however, that once prices moderate, motorists tend to drive more. That’s exactly what happened in December when gas prices dropped 44 percent from December 2007.”

As shown in the table below, Texans bought less gasoline from April to November than in the same month the year before. December gasoline consumption bucked the trend, shooting up nearly 4 percent.

“As expected, the figures show that Texans chose to drive less during the summer months when gasoline was near $4.00 per gallon, and a higher percentage of driving is for non-essential trips,” Ellis points out. “The big decline in September could be attributed to Hurricane Ike, which affected a large part of the state.”

By October — as gas prices dropped below $3.00 per gallon — gas purchases increased but were still less than the previous October. By December (the last month figures are available), gasoline prices dropped to $1.63 per gallon on average.

“The first quarter of 2009 will give us a lot more clues about driving behavior,” Ellis says. “As these gasoline prices level off, it will be interesting to see if Texans drive more or less than the previous year. I believe the severity and length of the recession could be the determining factor.”