Author(s):
J. Zmud, M. Tooley, R.T. Baker, J.A. Wagner
Publication Date
September 2015
Abstract
Automated (AV) and connected vehicle (CV) technologies are now maturing. Exactly how close they are to wide-scale deployment is highly uncertain. While still on their respective paths to full deployment, the technologies have implications for state and local transportation agencies now. What strategies can transportation agencies begin implementing to help them function effectively regardless of what the future brings? This study answers this question by formulating scenarios for AV and CV paths of deployment, using them as a basis for interviews with state and local transportation agencies, and surfacing strategies to prepare for potential issues. Two scenarios were developed. In the Revolutionary Path, the private sector pushes the technologies to the market through aggressive R&D investments. Regulatory and policy issues do not hinder progress. Self-driving vehicles are present on the roads in significant numbers by 2025. In the Evolutionary Path, the private sector makes step-wise improvements in advance driver assistance systems. Policy, regulatory, and technical issues slow testing and deployment. Significant numbers are not achieved until 2050. Even though evolutionary, the second scenario was perceived as surfacing operational, organizational, and fiscal challenges. The Revolutionary Path was perceived as highly disruptive. Under either, most agencies want to know what the private sector expects of them. Both scenarios caused state and local agencies to consider their preparedness of their workforce. With AV, transportation agencies are faced with a new paradigm of technology deployment -- quite different from the intelligent transportation system (ITS) model. CV is perceived closer to the ITS model, in which agencies have more responsibility and control of deployment. Strategies to prepare include review of current legislation, establishment of working groups, outreach to policymakers, planning for workforce development, and addressing economic impacts.
Report Number:
161504-1
Keywords:
automated vehicles, Connected Vehicles, Scenario Planning, Strategic Planning, transportation planning, Transportation Policy, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Technology, Vehicle-to-Vehicle Technology
Link(s):
Document/Product
http://tti.tamu.edu/documents/161504-1.pdf
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