Episode 75. Crash Data and an Aging Population Raise an Issue: How old is too old to drive?

Bernie Fette (00:14):
Hey everyone. Welcome to Thinking Transportation — conversations about how we get ourselves and the stuff we need from one place to another. I’m Bernie Fette with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute. Americans are living longer, a lot longer than they were a few decades ago. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that the population segment over the age of 80 will grow to more than 30 million by 2050. That’s more than triple what it was 10 years ago. As that number increases, so too will the number of senior drivers. Drivers over the age of 80 constitute the fastest-growing population group on our roadways, and at the same time, they are overrepresented in crashes that cause death or serious injury. To help us understand this issue and what we might be able to do about it, we welcome Myunghoon Ko, a research engineer with TTI. Myung is an expert in the challenges faced by what we refer to as vulnerable road users. In this case, we’re talking specifically about older drivers Myung, thank you very much for joining us today. Thank

Myunghoon Ko (01:31):
Thank you so much for this opportunity to share my knowledge and experience.

Bernie Fette (01:36):
And how long have you been working on building that knowledge? How many years have you been at this?

Myunghoon Ko (01:42):
I started my job at TTI in 2008. Traffic safety or crash modeling.

Bernie Fette (01:49):
I see. So what we’re talking about today, the number of older drivers on the road is increasing across the United States and we expect that pattern to continue, right? Mm-Hmm.

Myunghoon Ko (02:02):
<affirmative>. Yes.

Bernie Fette (02:03):
At the same time, we know that drivers over the age of 80 are more likely than other drivers to be in serious or fatal crashes. We know that. Mm-Hmm? <affirmative>. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, please explain a little more. What else do you know and what else do you hope to learn through the research that you’re doing?

Myunghoon Ko (02:22):
So I would like to share some background for this safety research regarding or, uh, roadway user. About 10 years ago, Japan experienced kind of aging problem Last year I looked at the statistics, the older aging population, that means aged 65 years older and older account 30 percent of the total population in Japan in United States at that time, 10 years ago is about 13 percent.

Bernie Fette (03:02):
13 percent 10 years ago. Yeah. Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (03:04):
I look at the U.S. Census data, the aging population’s rate was still low, but maybe 30 year, 40 years later, the proportion will be increased significantly. Okay. So U.S. Census expected about 22 percent of total populations are older in 2030.

Bernie Fette (03:29):
Okay. When we talk about older drivers, there’s honestly a, a part of my thinking that goes to the other end of the age spectrum to novice drivers, teenagers who are also at very high risk for a variety of reasons, but that’s partly due to their brain development and then much older drivers. Those at the other end of that age spectrum, they also face cognitive challenges. We know that young drivers get better as they get more experienced. So we know that their driving skills improve as they get into their late twenties and thirties. So we know at what point to expect them just in terms of their age to become better. Do you also have a sense of how old we are when those same skills begin to decline?

Myunghoon Ko (04:24):
Okay. Prior to answering your question, may I ask a question to you Bernie?

Bernie Fette (04:30):
Sure.

Myunghoon Ko (04:30):
May I ask your age?

Bernie Fette (04:34):
Yes. My age is 63.

Myunghoon Ko (04:36):
Okay. You are still young. Yeah, <laugh>.

Bernie Fette (04:39):
Okay. Alright.

Myunghoon Ko (04:41):
When did you get your first driver license?

Bernie Fette (04:45):
16. I was 16 years old.

Myunghoon Ko (04:47):
16. You have so much experience in driving. Did you feel any changes in your driving skills or any body changes with aging?

Bernie Fette (05:02):
No. I would have to say that I haven’t noticed anything. No.

Myunghoon Ko (05:07):
Awesome. Yeah. You are still young. Before answering your questions about the cognitive development changes with aging, I would like to specify the two definitions or justifications. What I learned my previous studies and the research.

Bernie Fette (05:27):
Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (05:28):
Okay. Number one is aging is not a risk factor because it is clear that aging can limit in visual, cognitive and physical functions. Okay. So older drivers are more likely drive in the daytime and try to minimize or reduce unnecessary driving. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. So they wanted to reduce the risk of crisis on roadway due to their limitations. So we can say old roadway user is much safer roadway user than other age groups.

Bernie Fette (06:17):
I see. Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (06:18):
Because they are less likely to be involved in situations like speeding and violations like red light running or being rush or drunken driving. So they’re less likely to be involved in those risk situations.

Bernie Fette (06:39):
I see.

Myunghoon Ko (06:39):
So again, lesson number one is aging is not a risk factor.

Bernie Fette (06:44):
Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (06:45):
And that’s number two, discrepancy is a risk factor. Discrepancy means is a difference among the drivers. There is some expressions used in transportation engineering. So that is the perception and reaction time. It defines the interval between the time where something is perceived on roadway. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> and the time it takes to respond to something. Okay. In the average perception and the reaction time of a general population is less than one second. Average of zero-point-6 seconds. So it is very quick.

Bernie Fette (07:32):
And that’s when you consider the entire population?

Myunghoon Ko (07:35):
Yes.

Bernie Fette (07:36):
Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (07:37):
But when I see the some spectrum of the perception and the reaction time, some people take up to 2.5 seconds. Right. So we can say that some aging persons or older persons need more time to respond to something on the roadway. Right. So most of the time it doesn’t make any complete among the drivers, but in some situation, like you know, the very quick person meet the very slow person, it is high likely to be conflicted or have crashes.

Bernie Fette (08:19):
I see. Okay. Yeah.

Myunghoon Ko (08:20):
These kind of discrepancies among the drivers can be risk factors on roadway. So we can say aging can limit personal cognitive, visual and physical functions in the United States. More aging persons on the roadway now. So we can assume more likely to have crashes involving old roadway users now. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. Right.

Bernie Fette (08:55):
Right. What I hear you saying in that rule one and rule two or lesson one and lesson two is that mm-Hmm. <affirmative> age in and of itself is not a risk factor.

Myunghoon Ko (09:04):
Yes sir. Yeah. However,

Bernie Fette (09:06):
However, things that happen to us as a result of aging are considered to be risk factors. Things like yes. The slower response time. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. Okay. Thank you. As you were explaining that, and as you were mentioning how older drivers are more likely to drive, if not exclusively, then more often during the daytime than at nighttime. And you had asked me earlier if I had felt any changes in my driving skills as I have aged. Mm-Hmm <affirmative>. And when you mentioned that daytime factor, it did remind me that in recent years I have just come to prefer mm-Hmm. <affirmative> to limit my driving at night just because I know Yeah. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> that I’m less comfortable. I feel a tiny bit less confident simply because of how all of us perhaps have changes in our depth perception. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> in dark conditions versus light conditions. Yeah. So, mm-Hmm. <affirmative> that then would fall under the category of a risk factor as you have described it.

Myunghoon Ko (10:14):
Yes. So I mentioned about the discrepancy among the drivers can be a risk factor. Let me explain about the discrepancies among the drivers using the crash statistics.

Bernie Fette (10:28):
Okay. Please do.

Myunghoon Ko (10:30):
For the crashes involving younger drivers, younger driver means 16 years old and 79 years old, I look at the crash data. Okay. And there’s two type of crashes. So one is multi-vehicle involved crashes, that means two or more vehicle involved in one crash and another type is a single-vehicle crashes. So only one vehicle involved in crashes. So typical crash type will be the roadway departure crashes

Bernie Fette (11:04):
Just to run off the road.

Myunghoon Ko (11:06):
Yes, exactly. Okay. So I look at the crash data for the younger driver involved crashes, single vehicle crashes account about the 40 or 45 percent of total crashes. Okay. However, the crashes involving 80 years older and older multi vehicles accounted for almost 90 percent of total crashes. That means nine out of 10 multi-vehicle crashes for the older driver involved the crashes. Mm-Hmm. Does that make sense?

Bernie Fette (11:46):
Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I’m curious about why.

Myunghoon Ko (11:50):
Why? Because there is much discrepancies for all the drivers. So they run their vehicles with slower speed and they need more time to respond to something on the roadway. I see. Yeah. So my team conduct some educational activities at the senior centers and after the educational activities we collected their feedback or comments on the general issues in transportation. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, many seniors think these education also should be done for the other drivers because sometimes they feel that senior drivers are threatened or being aggressive by other drivers.

Bernie Fette (12:46):
Hmm. So you and I are having this conversation about the whole concept of aging drivers experiencing more problems and consequently being classified as I think you refer to them, a vulnerable user group.

Myunghoon Ko (13:02):
Yes. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>.

Bernie Fette (13:03):
But then at the same time, these older drivers that you and I are talking about, once you sit down and talk to them, they talk about us, they talk about the rest of the driving population causing problems. Yeah. For them, which is mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, I find that very interesting. I’m wondering how much of this problem that we’re discussing is a function of aging. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> things like reaction time and physical limitations that we’ve been talking about. And how much of the problem is tied to other factors such as changes in our driving environment? Mm-Hmm.

Myunghoon Ko (13:40):
<affirmative>

Bernie Fette (13:40):
Or changes in the technology of newer cars. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, can you share any insights that you have on that point?

Myunghoon Ko (13:47):
Okay. When I look at the crash data and compare the younger driver and the older drivers, older drivers are a little bit more likely to be involved crashes at intersections

Bernie Fette (14:02):
Intersection.

Myunghoon Ko (14:03):
Okay. Than the younger drivers. Yeah. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, I think the reason is nowadays the intersections are getting more complicated, right? Mm. Okay. So we installed more traffic signals to control the vehicle maneuver and we try to accommodate the various roadway users like the bike lane or moped or we installed more signals for the pedestrians controls too. Also the congestion before Covid we experienced high congestions on the roadway. Right. So these kind of factors like intersections, roadways more complicated and the congestion can be a risk factor to the older drivers. And when we talk about some auto technologies or in-vehicle technologies, it’ll be some counter measures or treatment for the senior drivers or the drivers. Because when we discuss the in-vehicle technologies, it’s gonna be lane keeping assistance, right? Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> and behind the spot detection and adaptive cruise controls and the forward collision warning systems. Yes. And cross traffic alert system, something like that. Yeah.

Bernie Fette (15:26):
Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (15:26):
Those in-vehicle technologies I think will be more beneficial for the senior drivers than other drivers because they can give more warning before the collisions. Right. So again, as I told you, senior drivers more exposed to the multi-vehicle crashes and more exposed to the crashes with the pedestrians and conflict with other road users can be prevented by using those in-vehicle technologies.

Bernie Fette (16:01):
Hmm. Okay. So I was wondering if some of those more complex and extensive in-vehicle technologies might actually create an obstacle of sorts for older drivers. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> who, who would have to become comfortable with those. So you see them as being beneficial to the older drivers, but are the older drivers comfortable with those?

Myunghoon Ko (16:24):
Oh yeah. Yes. Yes. Based on the crash analysis or safety assessment drivers intentions, you know, using cell phones while driving Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> or distractions is not that serious a risk factor compared to the younger drivers.

Bernie Fette (16:41):
I see. Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (16:42):
So, but the more risk factors for the senior drivers is the failure to yield the right of way to other roadway users, more senior driver involved with crashes related to those kind of risk factors.

Bernie Fette (16:57):
Okay. So in-vehicle technologies like cell phone use are more likely to be a risk factor for the younger drivers, you said, than for the older drivers?

Myunghoon Ko (17:08):
Yes sir. Yeah. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>.

Bernie Fette (17:10):
So your work presumes that these older drivers are going to be a reality on the road and you’re trying to learn ways, develop ways to make those drivers as safe as possible. Yes. Not mm-Hmm. <affirmative> the question of how to restrict their driving or remove them from the roadways.

Myunghoon Ko (17:30):
Yeah. As long as they can maintain driving abilities on the roadway.

Bernie Fette (17:35):
Right. This is not a new problem. We’ve known for many years that this is a high-risk group. What would you say that you and your colleagues understand about this issue now that perhaps you didn’t know 10 years ago?

Myunghoon Ko (17:51):
When I started my process, I thought about this research idea and try to make the roadway safer. At the time, the senior drivers or, or all the roadway users, not a serious issue, but I’ve expected a proportion of the senior drivers getting higher in the United States, more senior drivers on the roadway. So in that case we have a more serious issues in future. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, right? Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. But at that time I approach is kind of age or aging it was a risk factor.

Bernie Fette (18:33):
Ah, okay.

Myunghoon Ko (18:34):
But when I did some research project and we tried to get the feedback from the seniors, my team and I realized aging is not a risk factor.

Bernie Fette (18:47):
It’s the things that happen to us. Yes. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> that coincide with aging.

Myunghoon Ko (18:51):
Yes. Mm-Hmm.

Bernie Fette (18:52):
<affirmative>. I see. Okay. I’m also curious about what you think the next immediate needs are in this particular research field. If you were to win a really big research grant tomorrow, let’s say a million dollars.

Myunghoon Ko (19:11):
Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>,

Bernie Fette (19:12):
How would you use it? What might you explore in more depth than you have been able to do up to this point?

Myunghoon Ko (19:20):
That’s a great question. <laugh>. If I get some research fund

Bernie Fette (19:26):
Yeah. Sky is the limit.

Myunghoon Ko (19:28):
<laugh>. Yeah. Awesome. So I’m trying to educate all roadway users about this aging issues or all the driver safety. I’m still young, I’m 50 years old, but I think I am still young. So when I see slow vehicles ahead of me, mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, I’m trying to pass over that car and I’m trying to look at the vehicles right ahead of car. So yeah, I can see it’s kind of a senior driver in there. Those senior drivers can be my father or my mother or my sister. We need to understand their driving behavior. If we can understand each person’s situation and if we can understand and we can communicate more with other roadway users, I think we can minimize some conflict on the roadway. Right? Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, you know, the aging population in Japan is very serious issues, especially on the roadway. In Japan, the driver is older than certain age. They distribute the yellow dot sticker or bumper sticker. So

Bernie Fette (20:45):
It’s, there’s a mark on the car. Yes, <laugh>. Okay.

Myunghoon Ko (20:50):
You know, the more easily communicate with other drivers and the beg their understanding my driving behavior, and I think it may worse in the United States too, something like you can see some window sticker, sometimes baby on board or something like that. So

Bernie Fette (21:08):
Yes, student driver, please be patient.

Myunghoon Ko (21:10):
Yes. Yeah. So those kind of communications with the window decal or bumper stickers can minimize or reduce unnecessary conflict on the roadway. Right. Aggressive driving, something like that. If I have some fund for the research or project, I wanted to develop the communication tool for the older drivers and other drivers might have been working for the safety of old roadway users since 2018, from the multi-year project, we developed education materials based on the research reviews and the crash analysis or safety assessment. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. And we visit the senior centers in the communities that experience high number of crashes involving all the drivers. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. And we developed many education materials and we would drive the shares, all the roadway users, especially all the drivers. We posted all the materials, TTI web pages. So just search Google and type with TTI, senior driver safety, you can access the TTI web pages. And at the webpage we posted all education materials, brochures, or the video or some game activities to educate the senior drivers safety messages. Yeah. Please feel free to reach out the webpage and have some time to review our education materials

Bernie Fette (22:58):
I’d like to wrap up with a question that I like to ask each of our guests. What is it that inspires you to come to work every day?

Myunghoon Ko (23:10):
My, my children. My kids? Yeah.

Bernie Fette (23:12):
Your children. Okay. Yes.

Myunghoon Ko (23:15):
It’s my personal thought. Parents is kind of the big example to the children. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. Sometimes my children showed some bad behavior or bad activities or attitude. So sometimes I should admit that’s behavior or bad attitudes from me. I think I could be a mirror to my children.

Bernie Fette (23:45):
You’re setting an example.

Myunghoon Ko (23:46):
Yeah. Try to show some good example to my children. So I try to work more hard and try to support them. And I’m the immigrant. My family is only family in the United States, so we are very tied together closely. Yes. So, yeah. But unfortunately my wife passed away two and a half years ago.

Bernie Fette (24:12):
So sorry,

Myunghoon Ko (24:13):
My, uh, myself. You, thank you. Yeah. Myself and my children is the only people in the United States, so we stay close. So I’m trying to be a mom and dad to my children. So my top priority to my children. Yeah.

Bernie Fette (24:30):
Very good. It’s inspiring. We have been visiting with Myunghoon Ko, a research engineer with TTI. Myung. It’s clearly a very challenging problem that you’re working on and along with the other problems that you’re working to resolve. Thank you so much for helping us understand it a little better.

Myunghoon Ko (24:50):
Thank you so much, Bernie.

Bernie Fette (24:54):
It’s a fact of life. As we grow older, we face increased challenges with certain activities. Our physical agility may become compromised, our skills may become a bit dull, and our reaction times may grow longer. Those realities in the context of driving could lead to outcomes that are frightening at best and deadly at worst. Thanks for listening. Please take just a minute to give us a review, subscribe and share this episode, and please join us next time for another conversation about getting ourselves and the stuff we need from point A to point B. Thinking Transportation is a production of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, a member of the Texas A&M University System. The show is edited and produced by Chris Pourteau. I’m your writer and host, Bernie Fette. Thanks again for joining us. We’ll see you next time.